(January 2019)

Date of Birth: November 25, 1955
Citizenship: United States 

Business address

Anderson School of Management/UCLA
110 Westwood Plaza, B5.15
Los Angeles, CA 90095



B.A., 1976, Oberlin College (Mathematics and History).
M.B.A., 1980, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago (Management Science).
Ph.D., 1984, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago (Econometrics). 
Dissertation Title: "Specification and Analysis of Econometric Production Models."  

Fellowships, Honors, and Grants

Phi Beta Kappa Zeta of Ohio, elected 1975.

University of Chicago Fellowship, 1978-1980. G.M. Fellowship, University of Chicago, 1980-1981.

Kellogg Research Chair, Northwestern University, 1983-84.

1987 Savage Prize for best dissertation in Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics.

I. B. M. Scholar, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1988-89.

Bozell, Jacobs, Kenyon and Eckhardt Faculty Scholar, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1994-95.

Elected Fellow, American Statistical Association, June 1998.

1999 Mitchell Prize for Best Applications Paper in Bayesian Statistics for "Estimating Price Elasticities with Theory-based Priors (with A. Montgomery)," 
awarded by American Statistical Association, Bayesian Statistics Section.

2000 Arthur Kelly Faculty Price, GSB, U of Chicago, (awarded bi-annually for service to school).

"Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models" named one of most influential articles in twentieth anniversary issue of Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2002). 

Named Fellow, Journal of Econometrics, 2001.

2010 Long-term Impact Award, Marketing Science Society (with Greg Allenby). 

2016 Dean's Prize for Exceptional Faculty Mentorship of PhD Students.

Areas of Research Interest

Marketing: Brand Choice, Target Marketing, Price Promotions, Consumer Heterogeneity, Couponing, Search Theory, Direct Marketing

Econometrics: Hypothesis testing in systems of equations, non-nested hypothesis-testing procedures, Bayesian methods, limited dependent variable models, online guaranteed lending with instant approval, non-parametric time series methods.

Microeconomics: demand analysis applied to individual consumer expenditure data.  

Positions Held

Analyst, Abt Associates Inc., 1976-1977.
Consultant, SRI International Inc., 1978. 
Research Assistant, University of Chicago, 1979-1981.
Lecturer in Managerial Economics, Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, 1981-1983.
Assistant Professor of Managerial Economics, Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, 1983- 86.
Visiting Assistant Professor of Econometrics and Statistics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1985-1986.
Assistant Professor of Econometrics and Statistics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1986- 1990.
Associate Professor of Econometrics and Statistics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1990- 1994.
Professor of Marketing, Econometrics and Statistics, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1994- 1997.
Joseph T. and Bernice S. Lewis Professor of Marketing and Statistics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, 1997- 2010.
James Collins Professor of Marketing, Statistics, and Economics, Anderson School of Management, UCLA, 2010-present.

Consultant for RFG Options, Harris Bank, Hull Trading, GE Capital, Ernst and Young, KPMG Peat Marwick, Abbott Labs, Department of Defense, Booz Allen and Hamilton, Arthur Andersen, Kestnbaum and Company, Oliver, Wyman and Co.

Expert Witness for various legal proceedings involving statistical analysis, survey sampling, marketing and pricing, anti-trust, valuation of lost personal and business income, franchise rights, patent and trademark infringement, bio-statistics and job discrimination, and trademark infringement. Law firms involved include: Ross and Hardies, Rudnick and Wolfe, Seyfarth and Shaw, Sidley and Austin, Winston and Strawn, Arnold, White and Durkee, Hinshaw and Culbertson, Kirkland and Ellis, Cravath, Swaine and Moore, Mayer, Brown and Platt, Howrey, Bryan Cave LLP,  Jones Day, Latham and Watkins, WilmerHale.  

Publications: (click on links below to open full article in pdf)

Google Scholar Cites: 17,000+,  H-index: 49 as  of 1/19.  Google Scholar Citations


Modelling Stock Market Volatility: Bridging the Gap to Continuous Time (1996), San Diego: Academic Press (editor).

Bayesian Statistics and Marketing, with G. Allenby and R. McCulloch (2005), John Wiley & Sons, Probability and Statistics Series.

Bayesian Semi-Parametric and Non-Parametric Methods in Marketing and Micro-Econometrics (2014), Princeton University Press.

Working Papers 

Available on SSRN



            All articles are the sole copyright of the respective publishers.  Materials are provided for educational use only. 

"Inferences for Product Competition and Separable Demand" (forthcoming) with A. Smith and G. Allenby, Marketing Science

"The Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers" (forthcoming) with J. Chevalier, K. Chen, and E. Olsen,  Journal of Political Economy

"Income and Wealth Effects on Private Label Demand" (2018) with G. Hitsch and JP Dube,  Marketing Science, 37, No. 1, 22-53. 

"Economic Valuation of Product Features" (2014) with G. Allenby, J. Howell, and J. Brazell ,  Quantitative Marketing and Economics 12, 4, 421-456

"All Roads Lead to Arnold" (2014), Econometric Reviews 33, 1-4, 421-423.

"Even the Rich Can Make Themselves Poor: a critical examination of the use of IV methods in marketing" (2014),  Marketing Science, 33, No. 5, 655-672. 

"Valuation of Patented Product Features" (2014) with G. Allenby, J. Howell, and J. Brazell , Journal of Law and Economics, 57, 629-663. 

"Plausibly Exogenous" (2012) with T. Conley and C. Hansen, Review of Economics and Statistics, 94, pp. 260-272.

"State Dependence and Alternative Explanations for Consumer Inertia" (2010) with J. P. Dubé,and G. J. Hitsch, Rand Journal of Economics, Vol 41, No 3, 417-445.

"A Model for Trade-Up and Change in Considered Brands” (2010) with G. M. Allenby and M. J. Garratt , Marketing Science, 29, No. 1, January-February, pp. 40-56.

"Do Switching Costs Make Markets Less Competitive?” and "Commentaries and Rejoinder to Shin and Sudhir and to Cabral"  (2009) with G. J. Hitsch and J. P. Dubé,  Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. XLVI, August.

"Bayesian Analysis of Random Coefficient Logit Models Using Aggregate Data" (2009) with R. Jiang and P. Manchanda, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.149, April, pp. 136-148.

"Teaching Bayesian Statistics to Marketing and Business Students" (2008) with G. Allenby, The American Statistician, August, 62, No. 3, 195-198.

A Semi-Parametric Bayesian Approach to the Instrumental Variable Problem” (2008) with T. Conley, C. Hansen and R. McCulloch, Journal of Econometrics, 144, 276–305.

"Category Pricing with State Dependent Utility,"  (2008) with J. P. Dubé, G. J. Hitsch, and M. Vitorino , Marketing Science, 27, No. 3, May–June, pp. 417–429.

"Product Attributes and Models of Multiple Discreteness" (2007) with J. Kim and G. Allenby (2007), Journal of Econometrics, 138, pp. 208-230.

"Structural Modeling in Marketing: Review and Assessment" (2006) with P. Chintagunta, T. Erdem and M. Wedel (2006), Marketing Science, Vol. 25, No. 6, November–December, 581-605.

"A Direct Approach to Data Fusion" (2006) with Z. Gilula and R. McCulloch, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. XLIII, February, 73-83.

"Structural Modeling and Policy Simulation" (2005) with B.Bronnenberg and N.Vilcassim,  Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. XLII, February, 22–26.

"Response Modeling with Non-random Marketing Mix Variables” (2004) with P. Chintagunta and P. Manchanda, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. XLI, November, 467–478.

"The Role of Retail Competition and Retail Strategy as Drivers of Promotional Sensitivity" (2004) with P. Boatwright and S. Dhar, Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 2, 169–190.

"Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors" (2004) with E. Jacquier and N. Polson, Journal of Econometrics, 122, 185-212 .

"Bayesian Statistics and Marketing" (2003) with G. Allenby, Marketing Science, 22, Summer, 304-329.

"Why Don't Prices Rise During Periods of Peak Demand?" (2003) with J. Chevalier and A. Kashyap, AER, 93(1), 15-37.

"Modeling Consumer Demand for Variety" (2002) with G. Allenby and J. Kim , Marketing Science, 21, Summer,  229-250.

"Overcoming Scale Usage Heterogeneity: a Bayesian Hierarchical Approach" (2001) with G. Allenby and Z. Gilula, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96, 20-31

"Bayesian Analysis of the Multinomial Probit Model with Fully Identified Parameters" (2000) with R. McCulloch, Journal of Econometrics, 99, 173-193.

"Statistics and Marketing" (2000) with G. Allenby, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 65, 635-638.

"Account-Level Modeling for Trade Promotion: An Application of a Constrained Parameter Hierarchical Model" (1999) with P. Boatwright and R. McCulloch , JASA , 94, December,  1063-1073.

"Estimating Price Elasticities with Theory-Based Priors," (1999) with A. Montgomery, Journal of Marketing Research 36, 413-423.

"Marketing Models of Consumer Heterogeneity" (1999) with G. Allenby, Journal of Econometrics, 89, 57-78.

"Similarities in Choice Behavior Across Product Categories" (1998) with A. Ainslie , Marketing Science, 17, 2, 91-106.

"On the Taxation of Capital Income,"(1997),  Journal of Economic Theory, 73, 93-117(with L. Jones and R. Manuelli).

"The Value of Purchase History Data in Target Marketing" (1996) with G. Allenby and R. McCulloch, Marketing Science, 15, 4,  321-340.

"Modelling the Distribution of Price Sensitivity and Implications for Optimal Retail Pricing" (1995) with B. Kim and R. Blattberg , Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, 13, 291-304.

"Determinants of Store-level Price Elasticity" (1995) with S. Hoch, B. Kim and A. Montgomery, Journal of Marketing Research, 32, 17-29.

"Advances in Random Utility Models," (1994)  with Joel Horowitz, et al, Marketing Letters, 5, 311-322.

"Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models" (1994) with N. Polson and E. Jacquier , Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12 , 371-418.

"Purchase Frequency, Sample Selection and Price Sensitivity" (1994) with B. Kim , Marketing Letters (1994), 5, 57-68.

"An Exact Likelihood Analysis of the Multinomial Probit Model" (1994) with R. McCulloch (1994), Journal of Econometrics, 64, 207-240.

"A Marginal-Predictive Approach to Estimating Household Parameters" (1993) with G. Allenby, Marketing Letters, 4, 227-239.

"Nonlinear Dynamic Structures" (1993) with A. R. Gallant and G. Tauchen, Econometrica 61, 871-908.

"Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth" (1993)  with L. Jones and R. Manuelli, Journal of Political Economy, 485-517.

"A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Household Parameters" (1993) with G. Allenby, Journal of Marketing Research,  XXX, 171-182.

"Bayes Factors for Nonlinear Hypotheses and Likelihood Distributions" (1992) with R. McCulloch, Biometrika 79, 4, 663-676.

"Stock Prices and Volume" (1992) with A. R. Gallant and G. Tauchen , Review of Financial Studies, 5, 199-242.

"Quality Perceptions and Asymmetric Switching Between Brands" (1991) with G. Allenby, Marketing Science, 10, 185-204.

"Posterior, Predictive, and Utility-Based Approaches to Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory" (1991) with R. McCulloch, Journal of Financial Economics 2,8, 7-38

"A Bayesian Approach to Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory" (1991) with R. McCulloch, Journal of Econometrics 49, 141-168.

"There is No Aggregation Bias: Why Macro Logit Models Work" (1991) with G. Allenby Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 9, 2-14.

"Econometric Theory Interview with Arnold Zellner" (1989) Econometric Theory, 5 , 287-317.

"Comparison of Functional Forms in Production" (1985) Journal of Econometrics 30 (1985) 345-361.

"Bayesian Analysis of Dichotomous Quantal Response Models" (1984) with A. Zellner , Journal of Econometrics, 25, 365-394.

"Asymptotic Search Behavior Based on the Weibull Distribution" (1979) Economics Letters 3, 211-213.

"The Cost of Search and Rational Random Behavior" (1979),  Economics Letters, 3, 5-8.

"The Independence Transformation of Specific Substitutes and Specific Complements" (1979), Economics Letters, 2, 299-301.

"Body Time and Social Time: Mood Patterns by Menstrual Cycle Phase and Day of the Week" (1977) with A. S. Rossi, Social Science Research, 6, 273-308.

Book Chapters

"Bayesian Econometrics" (forthcoming) with G. Allenby in Handbook of Marketing Analytics: Methods and Applications in Marketing Management, Public Policy, and Litigation Support, N. Mizik and D. Hanssens, eds, Edward Elgar Publishing.

"Causal Inference in Marketing Applications" (forthcoming) in Handbook of Marketing Analytics: Methods and Applications in Marketing Management, Public Policy, and Litigation Support, N. Mizik and D. Hanssens, eds, Edward Elgar Publishing.

"Feature Valuation Using Equilibrium Analysis" (forthcoming) with J. R. Howell and G. Allenby in Handbook of Marketing Analytics: Methods and Applications in Marketing Management, Public Policy, and Litigation Support, N. Mizik and D. Hanssens, eds, Edward Elgar Publishing. 

"Economics Models of Choice" (2017 ) with G. Allenby and J. Kim  in Handbook of Marketing Decision Models, B. Wierenga and R. Lands, eds, 199-222, Springer. 

"Bayesian Applications in Marketing" (2011)  with G. Allenby in Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics (Geweke, Koop, and Van Dijk eds), Chapter 8, pp. 390-438, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

"Choice Models in Marketing: Economic Assumptions, Challenges and Trends" (2009) with S. Chandukala, J. Kim, T. Otter, and G. Allenby in Foundations and Trends in Marketing, 2, No. 2, 97-184, Now Publishers.

"Hierarchial Bayes Models: A Practitioner's Guide" (2006)  with G. Allenby  in Handbook of Marketing ResearchR. Grover and M.Vriens (eds.)Sage Publications."

"When BDT in Marketing Meant Bayesian Decision Theory: The Influence of Paul Green's Research" (2004) with E. Bradlow, P. Lenk, and G. Allenby, in Marketing Research and modeling: Progress and Prospects, A Tribute to Paul Green, Y. Wind and P.E. Green (eds.), p. 17-39, Kluwer Academic Press.

"Bayesian Analysis of Multinomial Probit Model" (2000) with R. McCulloch Simulation-Based Inference in Econometrics, (Mariano, Weeks and Schuermann, eds), Cambridge: Cambridge University.

"Existence of Bayes Estimators for the Binomial Logit Model" (1996) in D. Berry, K. Chaloner, and J. Geweke (eds), Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner , New York: John Wiley and Sons, 91-100.

"Bayes Factors for Testing the Equality of Covariance Matrix Eigenvalues" (1996) in  Modelling and Prediction, W. Johnson (ed), New York: Springer, 305-314.

"Hierarchical Modelling of Consumer Heterogeneity: An Application to Target Marketing"(1995) in Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Kass and Singpurwalla (eds), New York: Springer Verlag., 323-350.

"Comparison of Dynamic Factor Demand Model," (1987) in Austin Symposia in Economics: Dynamic Econometric Models, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

"Evaluating the Methodology of Social Experiments" (1985) in The Income Maintenance Experiments edited by J. Peckman, Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (with A. Zellner).

Misc Articles

"Calculating Reasonable Royalty Damages Using Conjoint Analysis," (2017) with G. Allenby, L. Cameron, J. Verlinda and Y. Li, AIPLA Quarterly Journal, 45, 234-253. 

"The HB Revolution" (2004) with G. Allenby and D. Bakken, (2004), Marketing Research, Summer, 20-25.

"Making Sense of Scanner Data" (2000) with P. Delurgio and D. Kantor , Harvard Business Review, March-April, 24.


"Both Network Effects and Quality are Important"  (2009) Journal of Marketing Research, XLVI, April.

PhD Students

Eric Gyhsels (84), Professor of Economics, University of North Carolina
Greg Allenby (88), Kurtz Professor of Marketing, Ohio State University
Eric Jacquier (91), Associate Professor of Finance, HEC Montreal
Byung-Do Kim (92), Professor of Marketing, Seoul National University
Alan Montgomery (94), Associate Professor of Marketing, CMU
Peter Boatwright (98), Associate Professor of Marketing, CMU
Andrew Ainslie (98), Professor of Marketing, Simon School of Business, University of Rochester
Renna Jiang (09), Assistant Professor of Marketing, UC Davis

Professional Activities

Associate Editor, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (1986- 1988)
Associate Editor, Journal of Econometrics, 1987 - 1995.
Member, Editorial Board Marketing Science, 1994 -2003.
Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Marketing Research, 1998- .
Associate Editor, Journal of American Statistical Association (applications section), 1995 – 2001.

Founding Editor (with Rajiv Lal), Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 2000-2010. 

Senior Editor, Marketing Science, 2015-2018. 

Chair, Business and Economics Section, American Statistical Association, 1995.
Seminar Leader, NBER/NSF Seminar on Bayesian Inference in Econometrics, 1995-1998.
Member, Savage Award Committee, ASA, 1995-2000.
Member, Advanced Research Forum Program Committee, AMA, 2000-2003

Referee for EconometricaJournal of EconometricsJournal of Political EconomyJournal of the American Statistical AssociationAmerican StatisticianEconometric TheoryJournal of Applied EconometricsJournal of BusinessMarketing ScienceReview of Financial StudiesReview of Economics and StatisticsManagement ScienceJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.

Service Activities


Vice-Chair, FEC (faculty policy committee advisory to Dean), 2013-2014.

Chair, Staffing Committee, 2012-13. 

Chair, MFE Review Committee, 2012.

Member, Committee to propose and develop MSBA (MS in Business Analytics) degree, 2015- .

Chicago Booth

Director, Strategic Marketing Management (short course exec ed program), 96-09.
Chair, Deans Reappointment Committee, 05.
Elected member, Dean’s Search Committee, 96.
Elected member, Dean’s Policy Committee, 96-09.
Chair of Recruiting, Marketing Group, 96-00, 01-03, 05-09.
Course Scheduler, Marketing Group, 96- 00.
Founder, Kilts Center for Marketing